Bangladesh Targets $63.4 Billion Export Goal Amid Industrial Hurdles

The Bangladeshi government has set a combined merchandise and services export target of $63.4 billion for fiscal year 2026-27, equivalent to a 15% expansion over actual earnings in the prior fiscal year, Commerce Minister Khandakar Abdul Muktadir announced at a press briefing in Dhaka. According to The Daily Star, the headline figure rests on a $55.2 billion merchandise target and an $8.2 billion services target, both calibrated against an FY2025-26 baseline of $48 billion in goods shipments — itself a 0.58% year-on-year contraction and the second consecutive annual decline following the record $52 billion posted in FY22.

The arithmetic against the external environment

The 15% projection sits within a structural backdrop that several senior industry figures have publicly contested. Garments, which account for more than 80% of merchandise earnings, fell 1.64% year on year to $38.70 billion in FY26. Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, indicated that even 10% growth would prove difficult under current operating conditions, citing a gas shortage that has disrupted industrial production over the past ten days and noting that exporters would regard 2%–4% growth as a satisfactory outcome. Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development, conceded the 15% trajectory is technically achievable, but flagged considerable residual uncertainty — a notable variable being the 10% US tariff now in force on Bangladeshi shipments. M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, attributed the difficulty to a confluence of domestic and external pressures, including elevated energy costs, weakening consumer demand in principal destination markets, and rising inventory positions that continue to weigh on global order books.

Trade architecture as the policy offset

The minister's framing leans on a sequenced bilateral and multilateral trade programme to offset cyclical headwinds. An Economic Partnership Agreement with South Korea is expected to be signed within the coming months, while an EPA concluded with Japan in February awaits parliamentary ratification in the next session. Dhaka is also pursuing at least six additional free trade agreements by year-end and remains in negotiations with the European Union to preserve duty-free market access following its planned graduation from the Least Developed Country category. On that procedural track, the United Nations Committee for Development Policy and the Economic and Social Council have backed Bangladesh's request for a three-year deferral — a decision that, if formalised, would retain LDC status until 2029 and provide corresponding statutory certainty for trading partners calibrating against Bangladesh's development classification.

Variables to track

The minister declined to provide a sector-wise breakdown of the merchandise target at the briefing, leaving the composition of the $55.2 billion figure unspecified. Subsequent quarterly trade data — particularly readymade garment volumes to the United States and the European Union — will serve as the first empirical test of whether the 15% trajectory holds, or whether the more conservative 2%–4% range cited by apparel manufacturers carries greater analytical weight in the outturn.